Paul D. McNelis

• Bachelors: Economics and Philosophy, Boston College
• Masters: M. Div., Theology, Weston School of  Theology
• PhD: Economics, The Johns Hopkins University

• Macroeconomic adjustment of emerging markets
• Computational methods for dynamic models
• Hypothesis testing and forecasting with nonlinear models
• Political macroeconomics of global imbalances
• Bayesian estimation of structural models

• "Computational Macrodynamics for Globalized Economies", with Guay C. Lim, in preparation for MIT Press. Fall 2008.
• "Forecasting Inflation with Forecast Combinations: Using Neural Networks in Policy", in M. Salzano and D. Colander (eds.), Complexity Hints for Economic Policy (Springer, 2007), 253-270 (with P. McAdam).
• "Inflation Targetings, Learning and Q-Volatility in Small Open Economies", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2007, Vol. 31.
• "Central Bank Learning, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Currency Risk:  Should Only Inflation Matter for Monetary Policy?", with Guay C. Lim, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2007, Vol. 26.
• "Central Bank Learning and Taylor Rules with Sticky Import Prices", with Guay C. Lim, Computational Economics 2006, Vol. 28.
• "Learning and the Monetary Policy Strategy of the European Central Bank", with Guay C. Lim, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2005.
• Neural Networks in Finance:  Gaining Predictive Edge in the Market.  January  2005: Elsevier Academic Press

Paul McNelis holds the Robert Bendheim Chair in Economic and Financial Policy in the Department of Finance, Graduate School of Business Administration, Fordham University, Lincoln Center campus.

McNelis was previously a Professor of Economics at Georgetown, joining the faculty in 1977 as an Assistant Professor.  He was born in Hazleton, Pa., where his father was an official of the United Mine Workers and his mother worked for the State Unemployment office.  After completing his theological studies McNelis was ordained as a Catholic priest for the Maryland Province of the Society of Jesus on June 4, 1977.

McNelis has worked with various international development organizations in Washington as well as several central banks, such as the Central Bank of Ireland, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of Indonesia, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, and the Bank of Japan.  He was also a visiting professor at Trinity College, Dublin in 1986-87, the first Philips visiting professor at the Vargas Foundation in Sao Paulo, Brazil during the 1994-95 academic year, and the Gasson Professor of Economics at Boston College during the 2001-02 academic year.  He has taught in multiple languages, offering short courses on Neural Networks and Finance in Portuguese in São Paulo and Brasília, Brazil, and in Spanish in Barcelona, Léon, and Santiago, Chile.

His writings are in the field of Computational Macroeconomics, concentrating on problems of adjustment and financial liberalization in Latin America and Asia.  His current research is on applications of neural networks and genetic algorithms for predicting exchange rate and asset-price instabilities, for assessing the effects of alternative monetary aggregates on inflation and interest rates in the short run, for evaluating credit risks in emerging markets, and solving real business cycle models.